Possibility theory and conditional probability offer complementary perspectives for modelling uncertainty, with each framework contributing distinct advantages. Possibility theory, rooted in fuzzy set ...
We introduce a new approach to simulating rare events for Markov random walks with heavy-tailed increments. This approach involves sequential importance sampling and resampling, and uses a martingale ...
Source: Thunder Bay, Canada. Used with permission of Dan Hunt, MD. Coincidences attract our attention because they seem weird, odd, or unlikely. Their improbability stimulates wonder—“what are the ...
“One of the basic axioms of the rational theory of decision under uncertainty is Savage’s (1954) sure-thing principle (STP). It states that if prospect x is preferred to y knowing that Event A ...
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